Amid the challenges of a fast-ageing population, the number of marriages in China has reduced by a significant 50 percent in just a decade. Moreover, the no-child attitude getting popular among couples is adding to China’s demographic crisis. Several measures taken by the Beijing government to encourage marriages and subsequent population growth are falling flat as the birth rate has failed to rebound. This is leading to a huge socio-economic problem in China, especially, against the backdrop of the ageing population and a declining reproductive-women population.
In 2013, authorities in China registered 13.5 marriage cases across the country. The number of marriages however has been declining at a fast rate since then. It reduced to 9.3 million in 2019 and 7.63 million in 2021. Chinese government’s incentives and encouragement failed to reverse the trend. The number of marriages slumped further in 2022 to 6.8 million, showed the latest data released by the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs.
In just one year, Chinese couples tying knots have gone down by 10.5 percent, underlining the rising distress and disinterest among Chinese youths. According to Guangdong-based independent demographer He Yafu, marriage registrations in China have been lowest marriage since 1980. Yafu said the declining youth population, low sex ratio, preference for late marriages, anxiety due to higher living costs and children-upbringing expenses, and betrothal wedding gifts are among the major reasons for the falling marriage rate in China. Unemployment and Covid-led disruptions too are contributing to this problem.
China scrapped the infamous one-child policy in 2016 to improve the birth rate. It also came up with facilities such as cross-regional marriage registrations, a cash reward of RMB 5,000 for the second child and RMB 20,000 for the third one, and free college education, among others. However, things have refused to improve. With economic independence, marriages ceased to be a necessity for Chinese women or a prerequisite for sexual behaviour for the youth. Moreover, priority to career building and painful child deliveries are major reasons for the fading interest in marriages.
There is a surge in DINK – double income, no kids- families in China. Jiaxing resident Fang Qin says the DINK lifestyle allows her to enjoy her freedom and more people have started linking it. “Compared with 10 years ago, I’m receiving more envy than puzzlement now when I tell people I’m married but don’t have a kid,” Qin said. In a survey carried out by the Chinese daily Xinmin Evening, 77 percent of Chinese college students said they would decide on having kids based on their economic situation.
Around 44 percent of Chinese women are not sure if they would ever get married while 69 percent cited “not wanting to have children” as primary reason, as per the survey conducted by Communist Party’s youth wing. The survey indicated a downtrend in ‘Gen Z’ about willingness to get married.
Yang Jinrui, who is a senior official at China’s National Health Commission, cited prolonged schooling years, greater employment pressure, and stressful life conditions for the lack of interest in marriage. Experts call the situation a “demographic timebomb”. Dr Ye Liu, a senior lecturer at Lau China Institute, said “Young Chinese’s attitude towards marriage poses a big threat to Beijing’s effort to alter the looming demographic crisis.”
The number of child-bearing women too has gone down. It fell by 46 million in just one decade from 380 million in 2010 to 334 million in 2020. The impact of the ageing population has led to the decline in reproductive-aged women by five million per year between 2016 and 2021. Yang Zongtao, an official at the Ministry of Civil Affairs, said “Marriage and reproduction are closely related. The decline in the marriage rate will affect the birth rate, which in turn affects economic and social developments.”
Delayed and lesser marriages, along with the falling number of reproductive-aged women, are causing the ageing population to grow faster. This means lesser availability of workforce even as the social liabilities continues to increase. All this is going to cause a potential slowdown in domestic demand and economic growth in China, said Hong Kong-based economist Zhang Zhiwei. Dr Xiujian Peng, senior research fellow at the Centre of Policy Studies, said “A declining and ageing population will be a real concern for China. It will have a profound impact on China’s economy from the present through to 2100.”
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