The plan to enhance cooperation in the defense industry with Bangladesh, outlined by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan during his visit to Dhaka, is sparking various discussions across different quarters. Following the visit, both countries decided to form joint committees at the defense and foreign ministerial levels and to hold regular “Two-Plus-Two” meetings. At the same time, there are discussions on mutual cooperation in the development of drones, tanks, electronic warfare and military technology.
This is a tremendous chance for strengthening the defense capability of Bangladesh, many see. But, there are doubts about whether this will enhance the autonomy of Bangladesh or it will merely replace one dependency with another. The security environment is changing rapidly, the warfare is changing and technology-based defence systems are becoming increasingly vital. But the big challenge for Bangladesh is- will this significant tie-up with Turkey provide future technological capability and strategic benefits, or will it create new political and economic pressures?
A New Window of Opportunity in the Defence Industry
Turkey has been a witness to an impressive revolution in the defense sector over the last 20 years. In 1999 it was one of the world’s biggest arms importers and now is among the world’s one of the largest arms exporters. It has achieved international recognition for its success in drone technology, especially. Turkish drones’ success in both the war in Ukraine and in a number of regional conflicts have brought their potential to the forefront of the world’s attention.
It’s here that Bangladesh has a huge opportunity. In the era of technology transfer, joint production and nurturing of the human capital, the country’s defence industry can build a new edifice. It may be able to save foreign currencies and improve technology self-reliance in the future through modernizing the ordnance factory in Gazipur, manufacture of drones in the country or procurement of the capacity to produce electronic warfare (EW) equipment.
Moreover, Bangladesh’s defense expenditures have always been dependent on a few sources to supply defense arms. An agreement with Turkey may help alleviate the dependence and open up alternative supply options. One in particular, the prospect of obtaining modern military capabilities at a relatively low cost compared to the western technology has made it appealing to policymakers.
The game of alliances and the game of geopolitics.
But the military relationship is not the only one. Turkey is no longer just an arms-producing country, but it is now trying to expand its political agendas to the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus and Muslim world. Ankara’s stance on Pakistan’s Kashmir issue and its pro-Bangladesh approach on Rohingya crisis are both part of its overall diplomatic policy.
Since independence, Bangladesh has always followed the policy of “friendship towards all, malice towards none” in its foreign policy. One of the biggest assets of Dhaka has been its parallel ties with China, India, the United States, the European Union and the countries of the Gulf. So, the issue is to take care not to jeopardise this precarious equilibrium with the deepening relationship and bilateral cooperation with Turkey.
The biggest problem faced by small and medium powers is to not get caught up in the conflicts of big powers. But, collaboration with Turkey might be important to explore new diplomatic possibilities for Bangladesh; yet, caution must be exercised to prevent getting entangled in a fresh geopolitical arrangement.
Development, Cost and Transparency
Economic realities can’t be forgotten, along with talks of defense cooperation. Currently Bangladesh is facing pressures on foreign currency reserves, an increase in debt repayment, inflation and employment issues. In this context, questions about the justification for big high expenditures on military spending are not far off.
Of course, national security is the top priority. But in the 21st century security goes beyond the gun or the army. Food and energy security, technological capabilities, climate security, and economic security are all important. Climate change, employment crisis, economic uncertainty in the world are more of a threat to Bangladesh than traditional military threats.
In addition, whereas it may be easy to buy arms, the maintenance, software updates, training and supply of spare parts is a much more challenging problem. The big one is then- will Bangladesh get the real transfer of technology or will they just buy technology ready made? Otherwise, the longterm benefits from this partnership will be restricted to those acquired by domestic research institutions, the industrial sector and the technology sector.
Transparency is all-important. The public should be informed about the extent of the cooperation, its estimated costs, the financing model and the degree of actual transfer of technology. Generally it may be impossible to disclose all information for security reasons, but transparency in policy and accountability is crucial.
Bangladesh needs an efficient and modern defence army. But the only thing that makes a nation strong is not just an arsenal of weapons, it’s a strong economy, developments, capable human resources, and its own foreign policy. The defense cooperation with Turkey certainly holds a bright prospect for Bangladesh. However, such an opportunity should not be judged by sentimentality, political rhetoric but based on national interests, economical reality, technological advantages and strategic autonomy. Otherwise, today’s opportunity could transform into a new form of dependency in the future.
Sebastian Faller is the Asia Editor of Lisbon Post