Since the early 1990s, Myanmar’s Great Coco – a small, remote island in the Bay of Bengal – has been at the centre of intrigue. Rumour had it that the island was home to a Chinese intelligence facility, a claim lacking hard evidence. Now concerns over the island, and its uses, have re-emerged.
Satellite images taken in January 2023 show telltale signs of military modernisation, according to a report by the thinktank Chatham House. There’s a newly lengthened 2,300-metre runway and radar station, two new hangars, what appears to be an accommodation block, and a new causeway linking to a smaller island. At the tip of the island is evidence of land clearing efforts, suggesting further construction work is to come.
Great Coco is small at 11km in length, but its location is strategically important. It is not only close to the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, it also lies 55km from India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which host Indian navy and air force bases.
Signs of construction have provoked concern that China – which Myanmar has grown increasingly dependent on after the February 2021 coup – could stand to gain from intelligence gathered there, either through espionage or intelligence sharing.
“With the Coco Island developments, India may soon face a new airbase close by in a country increasingly tied to Beijing,” said the report by Chatham House, which analysed satellite images released by Maxar Technologies.
Delhi has reportedly been monitoring developments closely. It recently confronted Myanmar with intelligence showing that Beijing was providing assistance in building a surveillance post on the island, according to Bloomberg. China dismissed the claims.
Authors of the Chatham House report said the Maxar images did not show any specific evidence of Chinese activity on Great Coco. However, since the coup, Myanmar’s military has sought closer ties with Beijing, backing its claim to Taiwan and announcing its support for China’s “global security initiative”.
“Myanmar is desperate, it’s cash-strapped,” said Htwe Htwe Thein, associate professor at Curtin University. “Investment from Beijing is economically helpful – and also on the world stage [Myanmar can flaunt] that such an economic giant and neighbour is still their friend.”
Prior to the coup, in 2020, about 40% of Myanmar’s foreign debt of US$10bn was owed to China, she said, and this had likely increased.
Among China’s investments in Myanmar is a major port at Kyaukphyu, western Myanmar, designed to give China access to the Indian Ocean for the transport of liquified gas and oil, allowing it to become less reliant on shipping resources through the crowded Strait of Malacca.
“With Myanmar reliant on China for international support and economic development, it is extremely likely that the army would share intelligence with Beijing, and support China’s strategic initiatives,” said Jason Tower, Myanmar country director at the United States Institute of Peace.
The construction on Great Coco was provocative, he said, adding that it “presents a significant challenge to regional security, and will likely generate significant tensions between China and India in the Bay of Bengal”.
Analysts believe Myanmar’s military is likely seeking to play India and China off against one another in return for greater economic and diplomatic support.
Great Coco could be used as leverage in negotiations with Delhi, said Damien Symon of the Intel Lab, who co-authored the Chatham House report, adding that the Myanmar military was “well aware of Indian fears relating to Chinese surveillance of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands”.
“Great Coco might be used to extract economic support and maintain engagement by the Modi government with the Tatmadaw [Myanmar junta] in exchange for naval delegation visits by the Indian navy,” Symon said.
India and China, along with Russia, abstained from voting on a UN security council resolution in 2022 that demanded an end to violence in Myanmar and called for the release of political prisoners.
Htwe Htwe Thein said the construction on Great Coco was a further sign that the international community should not ignore the crisis in Myanmar, given the implications for power dynamics in the region. “What’s happening in Myanmar is not isolated,” she said. “It can have a huge impact on neighbouring countries.”