China is gheraoing Taiwan from land and sea to cripple its economy and threatening its leadership by performing regular military drills near its borders. Communist Party of China under the leadership of President Xi Jinping is ruthlessly resorting to bullying thinking Beijing might be able to take over Taiwan without having to fire a single bullet.
China has also gone closer to Russia without having condemned its invasion of Ukraine, which is possibly a scenario where China is looking for approving partners in case it goes for full-blown invasion of Taiwan or looks to create blockade around the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the unofficial 100-mile buffer zone bifurcating Taiwan from China.
As per a report by Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Chinese warship was seen navigating in controversial waters near Pengjia Islet in northern Taiwan, which is a gheraoing tactics by China – actions that are close to acts of war – the China Coast Guard, its so-called maritime militia and various police and maritime safety agencies are trying to initiate a complete isolation of Taiwan, cutting its access to ports and blocking vital supplies like energy from reaching the island’s 23 million people. In such a scenario, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with its naval, air, and ground components might play auxiliary and support roles.
“China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years, stoking fears that tensions could erupt into outright conflict. Much attention has been paid to the threat of an invasion, but Beijing has options besides invading to coerce, punish, or annex Taiwan,” the report says.
Historically, China has always claimed Taiwan a part of its territory. The bone of contention between the two nations is a 1992 Consensus between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Kuomintang (KMT), as per which China views Taiwan as an “inseparable” province that is to be eventually unified with the Chinese mainland. But Taiwan has always been aversive of the idea anddenies endorsing the understanding in the 1992 Consensus.
War experts believe that if a war has to take place in current scenario the direct players – the United States, China, Taiwan and Japan – would be impacted the most. The biggest casualty would be the Unites States, with Chinese missiles can sabotageUS airbases in Japan with a capability to reach up to Guam, furthermore, it can sink US aircraft carriers in the sea taking along multiple U.S. destroyers and cruisers positioned around Taiwan.
A report on wargaming by the Center for Strategic and International Studies tested over 24 scenarios reflecting on a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 and found that if America pulls out of the war, People’s Liberation Army would be get a hold over Taiwan in three months or less.
The report further reveals a barrage of attacks and bombardments by China taking out most of Taiwan’s navy and air force in a matter of few hours as PLAN would entrap Taiwan and send the PLA soldiers to every corner of the Taiwan Strait. But it is most likely that Taiwan’s army would crush the invaders at the coast.
“Meanwhile US submarines, bombers, and fighter/attack aircraft, often reinforced by Japan Self-Defense Forces, rapidly cripple the Chinese amphibious fleet. China’s strikes on Japanese bases and US surface ships cannot change the result: Taiwan remains autonomous,” the report said.
According to a U.S. thinktank, despite all the loss U.S. would bear during the war, it would probably be able to fail the Chinese invasion of Taiwan or would at least take the steam out of the whole attack. As it would happen, Taiwanese counterattacks would also be at its prime, ultimately destabilizing the Chinese Communist party rule.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies report has also assessed the fatality of China-Taiwan war, an assumed death toll of 10,000 in couple of days. From possible nuclear attack by the U.S. targeting China to the citizens of the US and Japanese analyzing the situation accepting the losses that may come, the report has some interesting points to reveal, like the damage the war would do to Washington’s ability to project itself as a super power.
The report said that both Taiwan and the US military has to modernize its weapons, build workforce, in order to pose an effective resistance to a Chinese invasion.“Despite rhetoric about adopting a ‘porcupine strategy,’ Taiwan still spends most of its defense budget on expensive ships and aircraft that China will quickly destroy.
China was quite vocal of its intensions at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore, where Chinese Defense Minister Adm. Dong Jun warned those who support any moves for Taiwan independence will “end up in self-destruction.” “We will take resolute actions to curb Taiwan independence and make sure such a plot never succeeds,” said Dong, while slamming external interfering forces for selling arms and having illegal connect with Taiwan.
China’s growing threat tactics against the smaller nations were on display recently when China Coast Guard vessels clashed with Philippine Navy boats in the South China Sea near Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines maintains an outpost on a beached warship in waters claimed by both Beijing and Manila.
Similarly, Beijing is intimidating Taiwan both via military and economically, and under Xi Jinping’s rule is looking to reunify with it, by flexing it muscles, if necessary.
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