By Dr. Rahul Mishra, Harshit Prajapati and Prisie L. Patnayak
India’s recent retaliatory strike—Operation Sindoor—in response to the 22 April Pahalgam terror attack, marks a significant evolution in India’s conventional deterrence posture vis-à-vis Pakistan. Carried out on 7 May, the operation signalled New Delhi’s growing confidence in executing calibrated military responses without triggering Pakistan’s nuclear red lines.
Historically, India has exercised restraint in responding to cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan, largely due to concerns about escalation beyond the nuclear threshold. Notable instances of this restrained approach include the Parliament attack in 2001 and the Mumbai attack in 2008. However, a doctrinal and technological shift has occurred over the past decade. Since the surgical strikes post-Uri (2016) and the Balakot airstrike after Pulwama (2019), India has increasingly demonstrated its ability to strike pre-emptively and proportionately, while maintaining strategic stability.
Operation Sindoor took this evolution further. Indian precision strikes targeted key Pakistani military installations, including airbases, radar stations, and command centres located deep within Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Among the high-value targets were:
Lahore: Neutralisation of air defence systems.
Karachi (Malir cantonment): Strikes up to 150 km inside Pakistani territory.
Nur Khan Airbase, Rawalpindi: A major blow to Pakistan’s air surveillance capabilities and a location only 10 km from Islamabad, in proximity to the Strategic Plans Division (SPD)—the nerve centre of Pakistan’s nuclear command.
The Murid airbase, harbouring several drone squadrons, including Turkish armed ones such as the Bayraktar TB2 and Rafiqui base with JF-17 and Mirage fighter planes, also incurred severe damage. Through its precision ammunition and fighter jets, India also targeted the radar sites in Parsur, Chunian, and Airfwala, as well as the aviation base in Sialkot.
Moreover, the strike on Nur Khan air base reflected Pakistan’s fear of decapitation of its nuclear command authority. Indian strikes on the air bases compelled Pakistan to come to the table for a ceasefire.
Strategic Signalling and Deterrence Dynamics
The operation achieved dual deterrence effects:
- Deterrence by denial – India successfully neutralised 300–400 Pakistani drones and loitering munitions, using its Integrated Counter-UAS grid, surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, and Barak-8 air defence systems. Pakistan’s aircrafts were prevented from entering the border, and a few, including a Mirage, were downed.
- Deterrence by punishment – The offensive nature of India’s retaliation was measured yet comprehensive, targeting assets across Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi, Sargodha, and Sialkot, clearly indicating escalatory dominance.
The successful interception of Pakistan’s Fateh-II missile near Sirsa (Haryana)—a mere 260 km from New Delhi—further underlined India’s robust missile defence readiness and ability to absorb and neutralise threats close to strategic population centres.
Navigating Pakistan’s Nuclear Red Lines
Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine outlines four thresholds for nuclear weapon use:
- Spatial threshold – Major territorial incursions.
- Military threshold – Destruction of large portions of the Pakistani Armed Forces.
- Economic threshold – Economic strangulation or blockade.
- Political threshold – Major political destabilisation.
Operation Sindoor carefully calibrated its actions to avoid breaching any of these thresholds, keeping the confrontation below the nuclear bar. By focusing on military targets and avoiding civilian or economic infrastructure, India demonstrated strategic prudence, maintaining room for escalation dominance within the conventional domain.
Technology and the Expanding Space for Conventional Warfare
India’s ability to strike with such precision is a by-product of technological innovation. The advent of precision-guided munitions (PGMs) and loitering munitions has revolutionised limited war capabilities. These technologies reduce the probability of collateral damage and unintended escalation by allowing surgical targeting of enemy combat assets.
Moreover, the riseThe successful interception of Pakistan’s Fateh-II missile near Sirsa (Haryana)—a mere 260 km from New Delhi—further underlined India’s robust missile defence readiness and ability to absorb and neutralise threats close to strategic population centres.
Navigating Pakistan’s Nuclear Red Lines
Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine outlines four thresholds for nuclear weapon use:
- Spatial threshold – Major territorial incursions.
- Military threshold – Destruction of large portions of the Pakistani Armed Forces.
- Economic threshold – Economic strangulation or blockade.
- Political threshold – Major political destabilisation.
Operation Sindoor carefully calibrated its actions to avoid breaching any of these thresholds, keeping the confrontation below the nuclear bar. By focusing on military targets and avoiding civilian or economic infrastructure, India demonstrated strategic prudence, maintaining room for escalation dominance within the conventional domain.
Technology and the Expanding Space for Conventional Warfare
India’s ability to strike with such precision is a by-product of technological innovation. The advent of precision-guided munitions (PGMs) and loitering munitions has revolutionised limited war capabilities. These technologies reduce the probability of collateral damage and unintended escalation by allowing surgical targeting of enemy combat assets.
Moreover, the rise of drones and autonomous strike platforms—used extensively in the Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020) and the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war—has lowered the threshold for kinetic operations without provoking nuclear escalation. These systems are cost-effective, expendable, and effective for counter-force targeting, thereby enhancing the feasibility of limited conventional war even in a nuclearized dyad of India and Pakistan.
Challenges Ahead: The China Factor
Despite the tactical success of Operation Sindoor, the loss of a Rafale jet to a Chinese J-10C fighter equipped with PL-15 BVR missiles is alarming. The PL-15’s range exceeding 200 km and high kill probability signal a significant technological edge for China in potential aerial combat scenarios. With India’s fighter squadron strength down to 31 (as of 2024)—well below the sanctioned 42—it remains vulnerable to a two-front threat.
To mitigate this, India must accelerate the induction of LCA Tejas Mk-1A and ensure that its Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program meets projected timelines. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) needs to ramp up production efficiency and coordination with the Indian Air Force to fill capability gaps by 2030.
Conclusion: Deterrence, Doctrine, and Future Preparedness
India’s May 7 Operation Sindoor marks a strategic inflexion point in South Asian deterrence dynamics. It demonstrates India’s expanding strategic space for calibrated responses to cross-border terrorism—enabled by technological superiority, doctrinal clarity, and military resolve. However, the sustainability of this deterrence will depend on India’s ability to maintain a qualitative and quantitative edge in air power, missile defence, and cyber-electronic warfare systems.
The coming years will test whether this operation merely served as a punitive expedition or has fundamentally re-established deterrence vis-à-vis Pakistan. For India, preparing for a simultaneous two-front scenario (involving both Pakistan and China) —while retaining coercive leverage over sub-conventional threats—will be the cornerstone of credible deterrence in the 21st century. of drones and autonomous strike platforms—used extensively in the Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020) and the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war—has lowered the threshold for kinetic operations without provoking nuclear escalation. These systems are cost-effective, expendable, and effective for counter-force targeting, thereby enhancing the feasibility of limited conventional war even in a nuclearized dyad of India and Pakistan.
Challenges Ahead: The China Factor
Despite the tactical success of Operation Sindoor, the loss of a Rafale jet to a Chinese J-10C fighter equipped with PL-15 BVR missiles is alarming. The PL-15’s range exceeding 200 km and high kill probability signal a significant technological edge for China in potential aerial combat scenarios. With India’s fighter squadron strength down to 31 (as of 2024)—well below the sanctioned 42—it remains vulnerable to a two-front threat.
To mitigate this, India must accelerate the induction of LCA Tejas Mk-1A and ensure that its Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program meets projected timelines. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) needs to ramp up production efficiency and coordination with the Indian Air Force to fill capability gaps by 2030.
Conclusion: Deterrence, Doctrine, and Future Preparedness
India’s May 7 Operation Sindoor marks a strategic inflexion point in South Asian deterrence dynamics. It demonstrates India’s expanding strategic space for calibrated responses to cross-border terrorism—enabled by technological superiority, doctrinal clarity, and military resolve. However, the sustainability of this deterrence will depend on India’s ability to maintain a qualitative and quantitative edge in air power, missile defence, and cyber-electronic warfare systems.
The coming years will test whether this operation merely served as a punitive expedition or has fundamentally re-established deterrence vis-à-vis Pakistan. For India, preparing for a simultaneous two-front scenario (involving both Pakistan and China) —while retaining coercive leverage over sub-conventional threats—will be the cornerstone of credible deterrence in the 21st century.
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