Beijing can’t go all out to help Iran with weapons, has to keep Donald Trump in good humour

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China supplying the theocratic Islamic regime in Iran with weapons and technology is no secret, but the options before Beijing are also limited by the need for China to have a friendly posture with other Gulf countries and also to keep US President Donald Trump in good humour before his scheduled summit meeting with President Xi Jinping of China in the middle of May.

Beijing cannot afford to sour relations with Gulf nations such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain which have been hit by missiles launched by Iran in the course of the current war; missiles of Chinese origin or built with technology transferred from China.

That China is on guard before the visit of the US President is clear from the assertion of Beijing that it will not supply Iran with weapons. In view of the economic slowdown facing China, Beijing does not want another tariff war with the US. For Beijing it is more important to have access to the US market than to strengthen the Chinese base in Iran. Clearly, Chinese President Xi will face President Trump next month from a weaker bargaining position.

China has been careful not to cross the red line by helping Iran in the production of nuclear weapons. Formal denials notwithstanding, in the face of credible reports that China has been helping Iran with intelligence as well as a range of weapons it is still not sure for Beijing which way the tide will turn for it in the summit. The seizure of an Iranian ship by US forces on April 19 in the Gulf of Oman, possibly carrying items of dual use from the Gaolan Port in China, is an indication of the intentions of the US.  

China was a major supplier of conventional weapons to Iran in the 1980s but largely stopped such transfers in 2015 after a UN Security Council Resolution increased international scrutiny of such transfers. In recent years, security cooperation has shifted toward dual-use technology sales and transfers of defence-related technologies, including those relevant to missile and drone development. Dual-use technology transfers are helping Tehran enhance its ballistic missile and space launch vehicle capabilities.

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Chinese components, including sensors, voltage converters and semiconductors have been found in Iranian drones. China is known to be also helping Iran with intelligence on the deployment of military resources of the US in the Gulf and also supplying surveillance systems. The sale of sanctioned dual-use technology would enable Tehran to keep building weapons.

Now, however, there are reports of the Chinese government directly transferring weapons systems. According to US intelligence reports, China is preparing to deliver new air defence systems to Iran within the next few weeks. Iran may be using the current ceasefire as an opportunity to replenish certain weapons systems with the help of key foreign partners. Now if Beijing backs out, its foothold will weaken in Iran; which China can ill afford as Iran is its main base to counter US influence in the Middle East. There are reports that Beijing is working out routes for the shipments through third countries to mask the true origin of consignments of weapons.

Among the systems Beijing is reported to be preparing to transfer are shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile systems known as MANPADs (Man Portable Air Defence Systems), which can pose a threat to low-flying US military aircraft. Shoulder fired and easy to operate, these launchers emit heat-seeking fire-and-forget missiles.

Significantly, the US President has not ruled out China supplying such missiles to Iran. “If China does that, China will have big problems,” he has told newspersons in reply to questions on these SAMs. Donald Trump has, in fact, admitted that an F-15 fighter jet shot down over Iran in the beginning of April was hit by a handheld heat-seeking shoulder missile. Tehran has said it had used a new air defence system to hit the jet, without elaborating if it was a Chinese weapon system.

A satellite, developed and launched by a Chinese firm in the private sector and launched in 2024, was taken over last year by the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the ideological army of Iran. Under an export model known as “in-orbit delivery,” spacecraft launched in China are transferred to overseas buyers only after they have successfully reached the orbit. During the ongoing conflict, the satellite has been used by Iran to track US military positions across the Middle East. Iranian commanders tasked it with keeping watch on key American military installations in the region. Companies in the private sector in China, associated with technologies that can be used in defence, work in close coordination with the Chinese state and the military.

IRGC has also been given access to a network of commercial ground stations run by a Beijing-based satellite services provider with operations spanning Asia. The satellite is said to have captured images of air bases and other targets in countries in the Middle East which have been hit by missile strikes by Iran; among them Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia where a stationed American aircraft suffered damage. This satellite has also helped Iran track activities around Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, sites near the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain, and Erbil Airport in Iraq; places where the IRGC have claimed strikes.

Western intelligence assessment is that no Chinese company could give Iran such satellite access without somebody in the administration giving it the go-ahead. The Chinese authorities have been helping the Iranians with intelligence, but trying to keep the hand of the government hidden.

The US – China Economic and Security Review Commission has described the relationship between China and Iran as part of an informal “axis of autocracy.” China helps Iran evade US sanctions and maintain its destabilizing activities in the Middle East. Iran supplies China with relatively low-cost oil and is a partner in China’s efforts to undermine the US-led global order.

Tehran has sought deeper strategic alignment, but China has avoided formal commitments to Iran on defence beyond providing intelligence support and dual-use supplies. China’s direct military engagements with Iran occur primarily through trilateral or multilateral activities such as naval exercises.

Reports indicate that China has sold to Iran sodium perchlorate, a component of rocket fuel. In the first week of March, two state-owned Iranian vessels sailed for Iran from the Gaolan Port of China, believed to be carrying sodium perchlorate for missiles. In January 2025, two Iranian ships were loaded in China with approximately 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate.

According to a Reuters report on February 24, 2026, Iran is close to a deal with China to purchase CM-302 anti-ship cruise missiles; though no delivery date has been announced. Such an anti-ship Chinese missile in the possession of Iran can be a game changer in the Gulf region. Produced by state-owned China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, the supersonic missiles of speed Mach 3 have a range of about 290 kilometres and are designed to evade shipborne defences by flying low and fast. These missiles would significantly enhance Iran’s strike capabilities and pose a threat to US naval forces in the region.

Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles like the Shahed – 136 drones, described as “the world’s most lethal, widely deployed terror weapon,” rely on imported electronics, engines, navigation components, batteries, and semiconductors. Many of these parts originate in the United States, Europe, and Japan. Though sanctioned items for Iran, procurement networks route them through Chinese distributors or trading companies to reach Iranian manufacturers.

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