A recent survey by the US-based think tank, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) revealed that experts believe China does not have a coherent internal strategy and road map to achieving peaceful unification with Taiwan.
China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, has carried out military drills around the island nation after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in August.
CSIS conducted the poll with 64 leading experts on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan, and cross-Strait relations to get the views on China’s game plan that started after Pelosi visited Taiwan, Nikkei Asia reported.
The findings show that the majority of US experts believe that China does not have a coherent internal strategy and road map to achieve peaceful unification with Taiwan. As 80 per cent of respondents have said that they don’t believe that Beijing has “a coherent internal strategy and road map, with concrete stages and actionable next steps, to achieve peaceful unification with Taiwan.”
CSIS noted that this is likely related to “China’s inability to win the hearts and minds of the Taiwan government and people” and the collapse of the “one country, two systems” model offered by Beijing after it reversed its promises of autonomy in Hong Kong.
The findings also revealed that the majority of the experts do not believe Beijing is preparing for immediate action on Taiwan, contradictory to what was presented in the media or at other think tank seminars.
According to the survey, 44 per cent of respondents said Beijing has set a hard deadline to achieve unification by 2049. The experts were divided on the internal “deadline” that Beijing may have to solve the Taiwan issue — anywhere between 2027, 2049 and 2072.
Bonny Lin, the director of the centre’s China Power Project and the leader of the survey said, “The survey shows that some of the catchy media headlines about how China may use force against Taiwan tomorrow do not reflect the view of leading experts on China and Taiwan,” according to Nikkei Asia.
Meanwhile, some experts do believe that Beijing is willing to wait for unification but will not accept the status quo permanently.
“For this group, there is likely an assessment that Beijing is willing to wait because the conditions — political, economic, or military — are not yet optimal for China to achieve peaceful or forceful unification,” CSIS said.
Elbridge Colby, one of the respondents and author of “The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict,” told Nikkei Asia, “Beijing will be willing to permanently accept the status quo if the alternative is a humiliating failure.”
Noting that Beijing probably does not have a “drop-dead date” for solving the Taiwan issue and that it is flexible in its approach, Colby said there is a possibility that China could engage in an amphibious invasion of Taiwan in the next 10 years.
“If the U.S., Taiwan and Japan neglect the threat, I think the risk will be much higher. I think if we prepare to defend Taiwan, the risk will be much lower,” he said as quoted by Nikkei Asia.