Political processes in South and Central Asia are rapidly evolving. Former allies are becoming adversaries and engaging in bloody confrontations, while previously distrusted parties are aligning their positions and seeking common interests. The Taliban are growing closer to India while simultaneously engaging in a fierce confrontation with their former mentor and sponsor, Pakistan. In fact, if this process continues and strengthens, it could be akin to a diplomatic revolution.
India is opening an embassy in Kabul. There has been no Indian diplomatic representation in Afghanistan since 2021, when American and NATO troops began withdrawing, and the Taliban quickly seized power in most of the country, including the capital.
The decision to open the embassy was announced at a meeting between Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. The meeting took place in India, where a Taliban delegation arrived for the first time since the Islamic Emirate’s return to power in 2021. “I am pleased to announce today that the technical mission in Kabul has been upgraded to the Indian Embassy,” Jaishankar said.
The Indian minister noted that he was “glad to see” Muttaqi in Delhi and referred to him as Afghanistan’s foreign minister, despite the fact that India does not officially recognize the Taliban-established Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA). Jaishankar emphasized that Muttaqi’s visit is “an important step in advancing our ties and strengthening the long-standing India–Afghan friendship.” He assured that “our long-standing partnership with Kabul is being renewed,” recalling “so many Indian projects implemented in Afghanistan.” “We can discuss the maintenance and repair of completed projects and steps to complete others for which we have already committed. Our teams can discuss other development priorities for Afghanistan. We are ready to begin implementing six new projects,” Jaishankar said. He thanked Muttaqi for inviting Indian companies to develop Afghan mineral resources and expressed hope for stronger trade ties. In addition, Jaishankar announced a gift of 20 ambulances to Kabul. The Indian minister also announced the dispatch of MRI machines, vaccines, and medicines to the country, as well as UN assistance in combating drug addiction. Jaishankar promised to rebuild Afghan homes after the August 2025 earthquake, which killed 1,400 people, and to construct housing for refugees. “India is fully committed to the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence of Afghanistan,” Jaishankar emphasized at the meeting with the Taliban minister. Since 2021, Delhi has supplied 50,000 tons of wheat, 300 tons of medicines, 40,000 liters of pesticides, 100 million doses of the polio vaccine, 1.5 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine, and other humanitarian supplies.
During his meeting with Muttaqi, Jaishankar mentioned the common threat posed by cross-border terrorism, which Indian diplomats associate with the actions of the Pakistani military. He recalled that he had spoken with Muttaqi by telephone after the terrorist attack in Kashmir by the militant group Resistance Front, which led to the most intense Indian–Pakistani clashes since 1971. Delhi accused Islamabad of supporting terrorists, while India identified their bases as the main targets of Pakistani attacks in May. “Your solidarity with us after the terrorist attack in Kashmir is noteworthy,” Jaishankar noted in his conversation with Muttaqi.
During the Afghan foreign minister’s visit to Delhi, Pakistani forces carried out a series of airstrikes in central Kabul. According to media reports, the target was the leadership of the Pakistani Taliban movement (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP). Several reports indicated that the Pakistani military managed to kill several key leaders of the radical movement, including Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, the TTP’s emir since 2018.
The incident occurred amid Islamabad’s accusations that the Taliban are harboring TTP militants in Afghanistan. Following the attack, Pakistani Defense Minister Khwaja Asif posted a message on the social network X, directly hinting at the airstrikes in Kabul. He stated that the Afghan Taliban would pay a price for harboring the Pakistani Taliban and emphasized that the country’s patience with the terrorists and their patrons had run out.
Thus, the Pakistani airstrike served two purposes. First, it aimed to eliminate its enemy—a Pakistani Pashtun separatist and the leader of the TTP. This radical organization is waging a bloody war against Pakistani authorities and is allied with the Afghan Taliban. Islamabad has repeatedly demanded that Kabul hand over TTP leaders and cease aiding them. In turn, the Afghan Taliban deny providing any assistance to the TTP and refuse to take action against them.
Secondly, with this airstrike, Pakistan sent a clear and stern message to the Taliban: stay away from India, the main and key enemy of Islamabad. Hence the timing of the strike—coinciding with the Taliban’s historic visit to Delhi.
At the same time, Pakistani foreign policy can hardly be called successful. Since the Taliban’s victory in 2021, Afghan-Pakistani relations have deteriorated. The two sides are locked in a low-intensity political conflict, which occasionally erupts into brief military clashes. Islamabad and the Pakistani military have failed to build trusting and mutually beneficial relations with Kabul’s new rulers. Meanwhile, Indian foreign policy is skillfully and subtly strengthening its position in Afghanistan, winning over an increasing number of Afghans sympathetic to Delhi.
The opening of the Indian embassy in Kabul will further enhance contacts between the Taliban and Delhi and consolidate India’s position in Afghanistan. However, there is no reason to believe that Pakistani–Afghan relations will normalize anytime soon.