Pakistan is projecting a surge in global demand for its JF-17 Thunder fighter. Officials claim interest from at least five countries in recent months. The narrative is of an “affordable” jet set to disrupt the global fighter market.
The numbers tell a different story.
Iraq, Bangladesh and Indonesia have reportedly shown interest. Saudi Arabia and Libya are reportedly exploring options. Reuters flagged these developments as a potential breakthrough for Pakistan’s defence exports.
Interest, however, is not in order. And orders are not deliveries.
Pakistan produces fewer than 20 JF-17s a year. Almost all are inducted into the Pakistan Air Force. It alone undercuts claims of an export surge that could “overwhelm” production.
The Pakistan Aeronautical Complex at Kamra builds just 16–18 aircraft annually. This figure has barely changed over the years. There is no evidence of spare capacity. There is also no sign of fresh investment to expand output.
Even today, Pakistan is struggling to meet its own needs.
The PAF still has to replace more than 250 ageing Mirage and F-7 fighters. That replacement plan itself hinges on Chinese platforms such as the JF-17, J-10C, and eventually the FC-31. Export ambitions sit atop this unresolved domestic demand.
Then there is the backlog.
Around 45 export aircraft are already on order. Azerbaijan alone has contracted 40 jets. Nigeria and Myanmar are still awaiting full deliveries. Azerbaijan showcased five aircraft in late 2025, a year after placing the order.
At the current production rate, these contracts will take years to fulfil.
Yet Pakistan is floating figures of 16 jets each for Bangladesh and Libya. Saudi Arabia is rumoured to be studying a deal worth nearly US$2 billion for up to 50 aircraft. Indonesia is said to be considering around 40.
Add them up, and the gap becomes obvious.
At best, Pakistan could deliver 15–18 jets a year. That is, without meeting its own air force requirements. Any new export order would mean long wait times or diversion from PAF stocks.
Former Pakistan Air Force officers admit this reality.
Pakistan never built the capacity for exports. Production was calibrated only to meet PAF induction timelines. Scaling up now would require fresh capital, new lines, and years of work.
That money does not exist.
Pakistan’s fiscal stress is well known. Defence manufacturing expansion would need either state funding or foreign investment. No credible investor has stepped forward.
China’s role complicates matters further.
The JF-17 is a joint programme. Pakistan makes the airframe and does final assembly. China supplies avionics and key systems. Any export needs approval from both sides.
Profit-sharing details remain opaque. So do production priorities.
China is actively marketing the JF-17. It featured prominently at the Singapore Airshow. But Beijing also pushes the J-10C and other higher-end platforms. The JF-17 is not its flagship export.
The supply chain adds another layer of risk.
The JF-17 uses Russian Klimov engines. Klimov is under sanctions linked to the Ukraine war. Securing engines in large numbers is not guaranteed. Any disruption hits deliveries first, not marketing brochures.
There is also the question of credibility.
Despite two decades of promotion, the JF-17 has only three export customers so far. All are politically aligned with Pakistan or China. None is a major air force with deep Western integration.
It makes claims about Saudi Arabia and Indonesia especially shaky.
Both operate advanced US and European fighters. Indonesia has already inducted Rafales and committed to F-15s. Saudi Arabia continues to rely on American and European platforms and is chasing the F-35.
Switching to the JF-17 would be a doctrinal and logistical break. There is no public sign of such a shift.
Price alone does not close that gap.
Pakistan claims a unit cost of US$40–50 million. Western fighters cost more, but they also bring deeper support ecosystems, financing options, and long-term upgrade paths.
The JF-17 offers none of that at scale.
For now, Pakistan’s JF-17 export story rests on expressions of interest, not contracts. On projections, not production. And on hype, not hard capacity.
Until factories expand, engines flow freely, and deliveries accelerate, the JF-17 remains a limited programme with exaggerated export claims, not a global market disruptor.