China’s manufacturing boom began in the early 1990s, driven by its vast, low-cost labor force, which enabled the production of labor-intensive goods on a massive scale. Over the years, international corporations poured investments into the country, drawn by its industrial potential. However, a 2022 report by Chang Jang Securities revealed a sobering truth: despite its enormous industrial capacity, China’s manufacturing sector remains largely centered on low-end goods. Critical technologies, large-scale machinery, core components, and essential industrial parts still heavily depend on imports.
In 2015, Beijing sought to address this dependency by unveiling the “Made in China 2025” initiative. This ambitious 10-year plan aimed to transform China into a global manufacturing powerhouse by targeting 10 key industries, such as robotics, aerospace, advanced materials, and new energy vehicles. The initiative was bold and unapologetic in its objectives—not just to catch up with global technological leaders but also to establish China’s dominance on the world stage.
However, “Made in China 2025” soon ran into significant hurdles. A persistent disregard for intellectual property rights by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and frequent allegations of technology appropriation from Western sources triggered discontent and led to international sanctions. The United States, in particular, responded strongly, placing the initiative at the center of its 2018 Section 301 investigations. The Trump administration accused Beijing of forced technology transfers, intellectual property theft, and market-distorting policies, leading to heightened tariffs and further sparking the US-China trade war.
The initiative set ambitious performance benchmarks for 2025: electric vehicles were expected to secure a 90% share of China’s domestic market, mobile communication devices 80%, industrial robots 70%, and integrated circuits 56% of the global market. General aviation aircraft were projected to reach 40% of the market. However, challenges in meeting these targets soon became apparent. A professor from Feitian Academy pointed out that while Chinese drone manufacturers have successfully captured 90% of the U.S. commercial market, the CCP still lags far behind aerospace giants like Boeing, Airbus, and SpaceX.
The aviation sector offered a clear example of these shortcomings. In 2023, China Eastern Airlines’ C-919 passenger aircraft, developed as a symbol of the country’s technological aspirations, failed to complete a routine flight from Shanghai to Chengdu, necessitating its replacement with an Airbus A320. Aviation experts attributed the failure to the C-919’s reliance on components sourced from multiple countries, raising doubts about its compatibility, reliability, and maintenance. These issues underscored deeper concerns about the feasibility of China’s industrial ambitions.
As “Made in China 2025” approaches its conclusion, it is expected that Chinese authorities may declare the initiative a success, regardless of actual results. This echoes previous CCP claims, such as the complete eradication of poverty or achieving a “moderately prosperous society,” which often faced criticism for inconsistencies with on-the-ground realities. A researcher at the Chinese Economic Research Institute predicted that data manipulation will likely create the illusion of progress and target achievement.
The initiative’s broader impact has also drawn international criticism. Many multinational corporations have raised concerns about discriminatory policies, forced technology transfers, and intellectual property theft. For years, foreign companies have reported being pressured into handing over critical designs and patents to access the Chinese market. Simultaneously, Chinese entities have frequently been implicated in the theft of trade secrets from other nations.
A director of the Second Research Institute at Taiwan’s Institute of Economic Research highlighted that China’s rapid manufacturing growth in earlier years relied heavily on investments from major international corporations in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. This strategy—exchanging market access for technology—has now lost its viability as global supply chains diversify. U.S.-led efforts to restructure these supply chains have further complicated China’s ability to leverage its market size to acquire foreign technology.
In response, Xi Jinping’s administration has pivoted toward self-reliance and deeper industrialization. However, this shift has led to overproduction in many sectors. With domestic demand unable to absorb the surplus, exports remain the only viable outlet, intensifying international resistance and trade tensions.
China’s struggles have been further magnified by ongoing technological battles with the United States. Washington’s semiconductor export controls have created bottlenecks for China’s artificial intelligence and high-tech manufacturing industries. Restrictions on cutting-edge chip manufacturing equipment and high-bandwidth memory have significantly limited progress. Observers speculate that future U.S. policies could further restrict China’s access to key technologies, including semiconductors, strategic metals, and medical supplies.
Recent events underline the challenges facing China’s high-tech ambitions. A teardown analysis of Huawei’s Mate 70 Pro Plus smartphone revealed its continued reliance on 7-nanometer chip technology, highlighting the country’s inability to compete with global leaders like TSMC, which is years ahead in semiconductor development. Similarly, the sudden dissolution of GPU unicorn ZangDixan in 2024, leaving 400 employees jobless, exposed the fragility of China’s high-tech manufacturing sector.
Ultimately, while “Made in China 2025” has driven advancements in applied research, the country’s fundamental research capabilities remain weak. Beijing’s aggressive acquisition of semiconductor companies worldwide underscores its struggles to achieve true self-sufficiency. Paradoxically, if China’s semiconductor capabilities were as advanced as claimed, these acquisitions would not be necessary. Without access to cutting-edge semiconductors and other critical technologies, “Made in China 2025” risks becoming an unfulfilled promise, reflecting broader challenges in China’s industrial transformation.