This year, traffic disruptions on the Karakoram Highway will be caused by more than just snow avalanches and landslides. The Karakoram Highway runs through Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan, which has been severely impacted by the aftermath of the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei. On March 1, the Pakistani military fired shots, killing 18 people, including eight children, to counter the violent Khamenei-loyalists raging through the streets of Gilgit and Skardo. A curfew was subsequently imposed, which helped calm the simmering passions to some extent. Authorities claim that demonstrators killed two soldiers and burned down multiple structures used by the military.
China worries that Pakistan’s support for Arab nations against Iran could destabilize Gilgit Baltistan, which has a Shia majority and remains attached to Iran’s Islamic regime. Political unrest in Gilgit-Baltistan jeopardizes China’s CPEC projects and impedes Chinese goods from accessing Pakistani ports easily. The importance of transit through Gilgit increases in the aftermath of the Hormuz Strait blockade and the suspension of Iran’s rail operations via Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to Xinjiang.
As I write, the law enforcement officers are busy hunting and detaining dozens of residents, including individuals suspected of ties to Iran-funded religious proxies. Police are raiding people’s homes in the middle of the night, disregarding the sanctity of Ramadan and transferring detainees to clandestine torture cells. At the moment, anyone who raises public awareness about state-led violations or has the ability to pull people to the streets is a target for arrest.
According to media sources, authorities have detained well-known political and cultural activists like Advocate Ehsan Ali, Engineer Mehboob, Advocate Nafees, Fida Isar, Taruf Abbas, Sheikh Yusuf, Nazar Kazmi, and Shabbir Mayar with the aim of instilling terror in society. These are precautionary measures to quell escalating domestic strife, as both the USA and Saudi Arabia expect the Pakistani military to cooperate with impending ground operations against Iran.
The Pakistani military provides vital intelligence collection and analytical capabilities to its Arab and Western partners. The army also employs a massive contingent of media activists to shape public opinion and justify attacks on Iran. The media uses domestic anti-Hindu sentiments to paint Iran as a villain for forming a defense and strategic partnership with India, similar to the one Pakistan recently signed with Saudi Arabia. Pakistani media have also chastised Iran for allowing Indian ships to sail through the Hormuz Strait, while Pakistan must depend on the Yanbu port on the Red Sea for oil supplies. Many Pakistanis in positions of power believe that a media campaign will allow them to prove loyalty to the Saudis and secure funds without fighting an actual war.
Despite Pakistan’s reservations, Iran has increased missile and drone assaults on Arab countries. According to foreign media accounts, less than 10% of Iranian drones and missiles are aimed at Israel, with the vast majority falling on Arab countries. According to Al Jazeera, one of the Iranian missiles also damaged Al-Aqsa Mosque, a Muslim holy site in Jerusalem. Shia opponents in Pakistani media as well as their Arab counterparts are spinning this as Iran’s clandestine agreement with Israel and India to destroy the Muslim Umma’s economic and strategic interests.
As if the situation were not complex enough, Pakistan’s arch nemesis, the Afghan Taliban, has declared its support for Iran’s IRGC, which disturbs both Arabs and Americans. Some analysts believe that in the near future, Iran will have the Taliban strike Pakistan to weaken any probable ground offensive favoring the Arabs. The United States believes that numerous al-Qaida leaders sheltered by Iran could be used to rally the Taliban’s support against Pakistan.
Currently, Pakistan’s army is at war with Baloch separatists and TTP militants. If the Pakistani army were to aid the USA and Saudi Arabia from Iran’s eastern border, it would have to push through several districts controlled by Baloch and TTP militants.
Despite international outrage, Pakistan has been bombing inside Afghanistan for the past few weeks. The aim is to weaken the Afghan and Baloch combat forces by destroying their bases, ammunition depots, and military installations along the Durand Line.
The risky adventures against Afghanistan have caused another headache for Islamabad, as China wants the Pakistani army to halt the assaults immediately to preserve its multibillion-dollar investments in Afghanistan. Pakistan, however, has politely rejected China’s appeal and continues to launch attacks. In one of its recent bombings in Kabul, the Pakistani air force struck a rehabilitation center, killing almost 400 civilians. As a response, Sheikh Abdur Rauf, the Grand Mufti of Afghanistan, has called on his followers to wage Jihad against the Pakistani troops. Pakistan is walking a tightrope with no possibility of winning at either end.
In the case of a full-fledged war between Iran and the surrounding Arab countries, Pakistan will no longer be a safe haven for its Shia citizens. People of occupied Gilgit-Baltistan, which is part of Jammu-Kashmir, however, have options that will not require moving to foreign lands in search of a dignified life. They would be better off breaking free from the shackles of the Two-Nations doctrine and rejoining India with Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh. The time has come to deny Pakistan the privilege of employing religion as a smokescreen and disguising its savage agenda of harming our cultural identity and usurping our natural resources.
Pakistan is fighting this war for monetary benefit. The British colonial masters invented this country to provide mercenary services, which it currently sells to the highest bidder. Pakistan is a sitting duck, with little to gain and plenty to lose. The end of this war will signal a new beginning for Balochistan, Pashtunistan, and Gilgit-Baltistan.