Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to decimate Ukraine’s military production capabilities and its ramifications will also fall on China, Ukraine’s top arms customer and Russia’s vital ally, according to an analysis. China is Ukraine’s top arms customer and Ukraine had everything China required to preserve and modernise its vast inventory of Russian weapons systems.
However, in the aftermath of Russia’s heavy bombardment of the European country the resources of Ukraine are likely to be decimated, according to Di Valerio Fabbri, writing in Geopolitica.info. China is going to look out for other options. It can rely on other suppliers or can reverse-engineer and manufacture the parts itself. But till it does so, as it is a lengthy process, its military arsenal is going to be vulnerable, the report says.
As Ukraine begins to rebuild its infrastructure and economy, China’s willingness to cooperate with and support Russia is also going to decide China’s relationship with Ukraine, the analyst said. Bilateral trade between China and Ukraine has seen significant growth over the years. Over the past 25 years, Ukraine’s exports to China have increased at an annualised pace of 12.2 per cent. In 2020, Ukraine ranked 55th in terms of GDP, 46th in terms of total exports, and 47th in terms of total imports from China.
Iron ore, grain, and seed oils were the top three exports sent to Beijing in 2020, totalling USD 7.26 billion in terms of bilateral trade. Another key area where China can get hurt is the agricultural resources. Nine months ago, the prospects for increasing Ukrainian wheat exports to China appeared promising. Ukraine had expectations that its grain exports to China would expand by two to three times, as per Geo Politica. However, the war in Ukraine has made it unclear as to where the partnership stands. The way China maintains its relationship with Russia is going to decide how Beijing’s ties with Ukraine are to play out.