Linn Maung
From trying to mediate in the civil war in Myanmar, China appears to wanting to be the arbitrator. This becomes evident from threats it has reportedly made to the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) to stop fighting with the Myanmar Army and government. Consequently, China has found itself at the receiving end of a torrent of condemnation from the people of Myanmar people.
According to The Irrawady newspaper, the Ruili Town Security Committee told the TNLA to “immediately stop fighting and cooperate with China in maintaining peace and stability in northern Shan State and along the China-Myanmar border or face more deterrent and disciplinary actions.”
The TNLA confirmed that it had received the warning in the form of a letter. This missive confirms that China is a little desperate to end the fighting in Myanmar and that is why it has moved from mediation to determining who will fight and who will not!
Perusal of media reports show that China closed the border between Ruili and the Myanmar town of Muse cutting off trade including fuel supplies, in a bid to get the TNLA to stop the fighting. At the same time, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) began military exercises along its border in the Ruili area, including live-fire drills.
China will continue to play a constructive role for Myanmar’s peace and reconciliation process and promote the de-escalation in northern Myanmar.” However, below the surface, the Chinese want to directly interfere and end the fighting in Northern Myanmar.
Interestingly, thousands of netizens in Myanmar responded to the post and severely criticised China for interfering in Myanmar’s internal affairs and expressed support for the TNLA.
China’s Defence Ministry said the drills would strengthen border security and stability. Officially of course, China’s position remains that “China is closely following the situation in Myanmar and the developments of the conflict in northern Myanmar, and has been working to promote peace.
A TNLA spokesman said the letter stated, “Fighting must stop immediately in order to maintain stability and peace on the China-Myanmar border and protect the lives of Chinese citizens.”
The letter added that if the TNLA did not comply, China would “teach them a lesson,” and the group would be “responsible for the consequences,” the Ruili Security Committee said. During a regular press briefing in Beijing recently the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said China is “ highly concerned about … the conflict in northern Myanmar” and “ will continue to … promote the easing and cooling of the situation” in the region.
One anti-government group named Octopus, waging an online campaign in Yangon, obliquely warned China: “We are revolutionaries. We listen to the voices of our people. The comments you see are the testimony to the voices of our people. If you listen to the voices of the people, people’s government, and ethnic forces, and stand by the side of the truth, you will gain huge benefits as a good neighbour.”
Others called on China to support the revolutionary forces including the civilian National Unity Government instead of the “fascist” military, if it really wanted to see peace and stability in the country. Responding to the Chinese Foreign Ministry statement, over the allegation of threats being issued against the TNLA netizens said they understand China’s concerns over border stability, but added that China should not pressurize Myanmar’s popular revolt against the military-led regime. The post had attracted 6.3 k comments as of noon (2 September 2024) most of them criticizing China for its threats against the TNLA.
However, more importantly several social media users noted that the warning was evidence of China’s meddling in Myanmar’s internal affairs despite its repeated claims that it does not do so and warned that in future China would be collectively punished by the Myanmar people, such as through increased anti-China sentiment if it turned a blind eye to their will.
The NUG’s Advisory body, the National Unity Consultative Council issued a statement which condemned China’s “impertinent threat and insult against the army of the ethnic Ta’ang people and the popular revolt”.
Prominent former 88-Generation student leader U Min Ko Naing told PVTV: “Those who made threats must recognize the reality. The revolutionary people are prepared to face anything.
They will not surrender to the bullying of any big power. They will not allow any threat to destroy a revolution that has cost many lives and limbs, while the destination is not far.”
That’s a strong message indicating that the anti-regime forces are intent on getting rid of the military-led government, the only problem here appears to be the day after.
An indication of this situation becomes apparent when one sees that China issued the warning to the TNLA, which is one of the three members of the Brotherhood Alliance. The TNLA is preparing to install its own administration in townships it has seized from the military regime in northern Shan State as part of the alliance’s offensive, known as Operation 1027.
The warning was issued after China concluded a three-day live-fire drill on the border with Myanmar in the first week of September 2024, which followed the visit of Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Naypyitaw in mid-August.
When Wang Yi held informal talks with counterparts from Myanmar, Thailand and Laos in Chiang Mai following his Naypyitaw visit, he insisted that three basic principles must be adhered to regarding the Myanmar “issue.” These were: (i) Myanmar should not be subject to civil strife, (ii) Country should not be detached from the ASEAN and; (iii) should not be infiltrated or interfered with by external forces. Left unsaid was the fact that China has extensive economic interests in Myanmar, including oil and gas pipelines and mines, and the surge of fighting between the military and insurgent forces has affected Chinese interests.
China-brokered two short-lived ceasefires between the Three Brotherhood Alliance (TBA), which includes the TNLA, and the military-led government but they collapsed. Since then, resistance forces have stepped up pressure on the military. They have captured numerous outposts, several major towns and a regional military headquarters. The question to be asked is whether China has issued such warnings to the other resistance forces that make up the TBA, the Arakan Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army.
The problem with China’s policy is that it is playing both sides and providing weapons to both the resistance forces and the military in Myanmar. China is hoping an election the military has promised to hold next year will help to restore peace and stability, while at the same time it is pressing anti-government forces to agree to peace. This strategy will not work in war-torn Myanmar and is likely to lead to intensification of fighting.
Source: https://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/china-tnla-letter-stop-fighting-08302024075230.html
Source: https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/myanmar-china-watch/china-faces-fierce-online-backlash-in-myanmar-after-threat-against-ethnic-army.html