Türkiye-China and Pakistan share a common strategic objective in South Asia; that is to reduce India’s sphere of influence in the region. Commercial interests undoubtedly benefit Turkey in sales of defence equipment like drones, to countries like Bangladesh and the Maldives. However, Istanbul consciously makes such sales to promote itself as the leader of the Islamic ummah, a step that Pakistan has actively promoted.
That is the primary rationale for its latest overtures to the Maldives, whose President Mohamed Muizzu made Turkey his first official overseas tour after assuming office in November last year. While both countries have had official contacts before, this is the first time that Male has moved away from India to obtain equipment, in this case drones, to conduct surveillance of its ocean waters. It is unfortunate that the India-Maldives partnership which provided the underpinnings for a secure Maldives is now being undone by Muizzu with this outreach to Türkiye.
By agreeing to provide the island nation with Bakhtyar TB-2 drones for ocean surveillance Türkiye has made an opportunistic and commercial leap with implications for the Maldives. These drones can also be armed and have proven themselves in the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict. This is thus a calculated move by Türkiye to expand its strategic footprint in the Indian Ocean region, by capitalizing on a deepening partnership with the Maldives. One recent instance of this can be seen in the unconventional appointment of retired Maldivian defence chief Abdul Raheem Abdul Latif as Ambassador to Turkey. It marks a tightening of military diplomacy between the two nations. It also signals the Maldives’ intent to serve as a gateway for Türkiye to project greater influence in the central Indian Ocean.
During President Muizzu’s visit to Türkiye (26-29 November 2023), Ankara fast-tracked the delivery of Turkish-made armed Bayraktar drones to the Maldives, despite India’s reservations about the proliferation of such capabilities among Indian Ocean Island states. Male signed an agreement with a Turkish company to purchase military drones to patrol the country’s waters, allocating US$ 37 million from the state’s contingency budget for the Maldives National Defence Force. The Maldives government introduced (15 March 2024) Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2 drones into service while setting up a new Air Corps tasked with monitoring the island nation’s maritime environs. Three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) were inaugurated in a ceremony at Maafaru International Airport in Noonu Atoll. One of the drones conducted a maiden maritime patrol from the base on 15 March.
Muizzu may have calculated that Türkiye’s provision of UAVs would obviate the need to approach India for carrying out surveillance of the waters in and around the island nation. However, it is forgotten that all this while, bilateral relations had given impetus to a surveillance mission that was mutually beneficial. Dragging an extra-regional power into the area is a dangerous and ill-advised venture. In 2022, India handed over the Coastal Radar network to the Maldives for the purpose of both surveillance and early warning.
Türkiye’s latest geo-political gambit aims gain strategic depth in a maritime space traditionally occupied by India. Leveraging the Maldives’ geographic centrality will allow Türkiye to expand its force projection capabilities across the Indian Ocean. Pertinently, Türkiye established its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu, Somalia in 2017, giving it a foothold in the northwestern Indian Ocean off the Horn of Africa. But partnering with the Maldives, an archipelagic nation occupying a central position, offers Türkiye a vantage point from which to monitor the region’s maritime traffic. To start things off, the Turkish Coast Guard ship Kinaliada is en route to mark the 100th anniversary of Türkiye’s relations with Japan. Through its 134-day voyage, covering 27,000 nautical miles, the ship will make 24 port visits in 20 countries, including the Maldives.
Türkiye officials have reportedly also discussed plans to secure access to Maldivian ports and airfields for refuelling, resupply and temporary deployments of its naval vessels and aircraft. This would enable Türkiye to extend the reach and endurance of its naval operations spanning from Somalia to the Maldives. There is potential for deepening defence cooperation. Ankara and Malé are exploring possibilities for Türkiye’s military training programs in the Maldives, bilateral exercises, and potentially even basing Türkiye troops and surveillance assets in the island nation. Establishing a military presence in the Maldives, will be limited to begin with, but would give Türkiye strategic entry into the Indian Ocean. It gives them a permanent foothold from which to keep an eye on maritime chokepoints and project offensive and defensive capabilities across the Indian Ocean’s central corridors. Türkiye’s opportunistic courtship of the Maldives, therefore, is a misnomer that should be treated purely as a commercial transaction.
While Türkiye’s foreign policy was historically constrained to its immediate vicinity, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ankara has displayed an escalating appetite for strategic power projection on a broader global stage. Türkiye aims to carve out a presence in the Indian Ocean by leveraging the Maldives as its maritime springboard. During President Muizzu’s recent visit to Türkiye, both nations formalised a commitment to enhance economic ties by signing an Agreement on Trade and Economic Cooperation. In 2022, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu had visited the Maldives and announced that both countries had agreed to establish a Joint Economic Committee. He noted that this committee would deepen economic cooperation and increase the bilateral trade volume. Background work for the latest agreement had already been undertaken enabling Muizzu to make his Turkish gambit!.
During his Türkiye visit President Muizzu also expressed interest in strengthening trade, investment, renewable energy, and higher education collaboration. He acknowledged the existing strong bilateral relations and thanked President Erdoğan and the Turkish people. In the joint statement, Presidents Muizzu and Erdoğan condemned Israeli military actions against Palestine and expressed the hope that a resolution to the conflict would come son. They also advocated for an independent Palestinian state within pre-1967 borders, designating East Jerusalem as the capital, and called for an end to Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories. While it suits Erdogan to court Muizzu, the latter could have been more circumspect and instead seems to have fallen into the trap.
Thus, it is seen that President Muizzu has given Türkiye an entry into the Indian Ocean region, a monumental folly that will only serve to de-stabilise the Indian Ocean region. While this may suit Pakistan, Türkiye’s presence in the Indian Ocean is unlikely to resolve the security paradigm for the Maldives. India has been a willing and able partner for the Maldives. To engage in diplomatic signalling with no real substance cannot take away from all that India has done for the Maldives. To believe that India can be wished away from the minds of the Maldivian people is also wishful thinking. President Muizzu needs to take a reality check.