Australia’s vulnerability has been alarmingly exposed as rising tensions in the Pacific escalate between China and the US.
A senior defence consultant has criticised the Australian government’s approach to national security on the back of the Defence Strategic Review (DSR).
With military analysts and commentators predicting conflict in the next four to eight years, he claims precious time has been wasted by a government incapable of acting decisively, mired in bureaucracy and unable to build the self-reliant capabilities Australia needs to defend ourselves.
And not only are we underprepared for any future conflict, but our reliance on other countries leaves us hopelessly unprotected.
Brent Clark, CEO of the Australian Industry and Defence Network (AIDN), has three decades of combined experience in the Royal Australian Navy and civilian companies manufacturing defence equipment.
He recently addressed the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies NSW, revealing some alarming home truths.
“The DSR has come out, which was a review, and now there is also to be a further review. We have wasted time. The government has taken a year to tell us what they’re (the DSR) going to do and now they’re going to do another review,” he said.
This delay has significant implications for defence construction.
“Defence was unable to progress contracting under the guise of waiting for the DSR to be completed, presented, considered and implemented,” he continued.
“In other words, industry sat idle for 12 months.
“Companies working on defence projects ground to a halt for a year.”
While serving military personnel are prohibited from speaking out on all matters related to security and military issues, defence industry executives have no such restrictions.
Clark knows his address will upset the government, but believes his frustrations are being felt throughout industry and the army, navy and air force themselves, who will ultimately suffer.
“We’ve burnt two years. We just cannot build ships in the next two years, but the government doesn’t even know what warships they are going to build,” Clark said.
“And on critical defence systems like the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Enterprise, the DSR, rather than detailing firm directives, calls for options papers to be delivered in 2024.
The expert claims Australia is ‘hopelessly unprotected’. Picture: Yang Kunye/VCG via Getty Images
The expert claims Australia is ‘hopelessly unprotected’. Picture: Yang Kunye/VCG via Getty Images
“This is a further delay on an issue the government has been considering for many years already.”
While Canberra, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, shies away from specifically referring to “China”, Clark does not.
“The Chinese are outbuilding everyone else and unlike our regulations on clean energy that hinders steel production, they have no international law obligations that limit their construction industry to renewable energy quotas,” he said.
Rather than scaling up production to meet demand, it is being tapered back. Production of infantry fighting vehicles has been reduced from 450 to 129. And worryingly, the much-publicised AUKUS submarines that will play a critical role to defend our country may not even see the light of day.
“There has been a misrepresentation from government to the Australian public. The Australian people were operating under the belief there would be eight AUKUS submarines produced in Adelaide from 2035 onwards,” Clark said.
“That is not the case. The total fleet of nuclear submarines will be eight. So if we buy five Virginia Class submarines (older and second hand), we will build only three AUKUSes.
“We cannot assume they are going to build eight nuclear submarines in Adelaide anymore.”
The DSR emphasises integration with Australia’s defence partners like the US and UK, but a critical omission stands out – it “does not focus on Australian industry”.
Without it, Clark believes our military equipment, once used, will not be able to be replaced or repaired.
The problem is not just confined to Beijing, but our closest defence partners. Picture: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
The problem is not just confined to Beijing, but our closest defence partners. Picture: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
And currently, China supplies us with electronic circuit cards which are used in our naval ships and other equipment – so in any potential conflict with Beijing, once we run out, it’s unlikely China would supply our war effort against them.
“We are going to have a (potential) conflict with somebody who puts 25 per cent of our parts into all our defence equipment,” he said.
This dependence on a future adversary will put Australia at a considerable disadvantage to sustain any meaningful military engagement when it matters. The problem is not just confined to Beijing, but our closest defence partners.
Australia, at $1.3 billion, is set to purchase 220 tomahawk missiles. In contrast, Japan is acquiring 700.
“In a shooting match with the Chinese, we would expend those weapons very quickly,” Clark claimed.
For context, during the 2011 Arab Spring, then-US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton targeted the Gaddafi regime in Libya, with 113 cruise missiles launched all at once in a single attack from US ships around the Mediterranean. Libya was not considered to have a sophisticated defence network and certainly was nowhere near equivalent to China’s modern day capabilities.
“Once our cruise missile assets are depleted, Australia is totally reliant on the United States to resupply us,” Clark said.
“The US can only build those weapons at a certain rate. In that scenario, our allies would prioritise themselves first.
“Only after their own needs were met would missiles be available to Australia.”
That cargo would then have to reach Australia successfully by sea, evading China’s navy over 15,000 kilometres. Close to 5000 allied ships were sunk during World War II.
Clark’s solution to this problem is for Australia to become self-reliant.
“The DSR does not care about local industry. We need to build a sovereign capability. And that is going to cost money,” he said.
“But in order for Australia to protect ourselves during any period of conflict, particularly a prolonged one, we have to shift away from relying on other countries and become independent.
“Without doing that, for ourselves and our strategic partners we are a liability.”
Minister for Defence Richard Marles was contacted for comment, but a response was not received.
Meanwhile, tensions between China and the US show no signs of abating. Li Shangfu, China’s Minister of Defence, still refuses to speak to his US counterpart Lloyd Austin after declining an invitation to meet him at Asia’s premier security conference in Singapore last month.
Speaking at that summit, Prime Minister Albanese issued a chilling warning for global security and world peace, pointing to China’s response to a growing spate of close call incidents: “If you don’t have the capacity to pick up the phone….(it would be) devastating for the world”.
In addition to not formally meeting the US, the Chinese government has repeatedly refused to take calls from America.
Picking up the phone from Washington was seen as a critical back channel for diffusing tense situations between the USSR and the US during the Cold War.
China has been involved in a rising number of near misses involving its navy and air force with Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines and the US.
Last month, a Chinese guided-missile destroyer came dangerously close to an American ship patrolling the area, the USS Chung-Hoon – and just last week, a number of Chinese aircraft including drones, fighter planes and bombers made provocative passes near Taiwan.
Alarmingly, any of these incidents have the potential to spiral into conflict.