For China, it would be the worst moment in its modern history. It is economically declining, while it is battling growing negative sentiments against it in several countries because of its expansionist designs and use of unfair means to fulfil its political, economic, and strategic agenda.
In the midst of such developments, on October 13, Taiwan reported detecting a Chinese aircraft carrier group, Liaoning sailing to the island’s south on October 13, with the People’s Liberation Army of China putting out a video saying it was “preparing for battle.”
It took place just three-day after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, in a rare but bold move, questioned Beijing’s sovereignty claims on the self-governing island, during his speech on the island’s National Day on October 10.
Lai Ching-te, who took presidential office in May this year, said Taiwan is a country called the Republic of China that traces its origin to the 1911 revolution when it overthrew the last imperial dynasty.
In fact, the Taiwanese President was referring to the Qing dynasty (1644 to 1911), the last of the imperial dynasties of China, which was overthrown in October 1911 by a group of revolutionaries in southern China and established in its place the Republic of China.
But in the process of calling spade a spade, the Taiwanese President rubbed salt into the wound of Beijing when he said it is “impossible” for the People’s Republic of China to become Taiwan’s motherland because Taiwan has older political roots. To make his point clear, he said the People’s Republic had celebrated its 75th anniversary of establishment on October 1, 2024, while the Republic of China celebrated 113th birthday on October 10 this year.
Riled by Lai Ching-te’s statement, China threatened to slap trade restrictions on Taiwan, while maintaining that the island’s “attempt to seek independence and make provocations will lead nowhere.”
As if it was not enough, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said, “The one-China principle is a basic norm in international relations and prevailing international consensus. Taiwan has never been a country and will never be a country, and thus has no so-called sovereignty. Upholding the one-China principle, opposing “Taiwan independence” and opposing “two Chinas” and “one China, one Taiwan” is our consistent position on the Taiwan region’s external exchanges and participation in international activities.”
Global Times, a state-backed English tabloid newspaper called it Lai Ching-te’s attempt to push a new “two-state” rhetoric and “stir up anti-mainland sentiment in the island and align with international anti-China forces’ plan to contain China.”
In fact, Lai Ching-te’s statement has come at the time when the US and its allies from Europe and Asia have increased their patrols in the 180 km long Taiwan Strait. Last month, in an epoch-making move, a Japanese warship sailed through the contentious Taiwan Strait for the first time since 1954.
According to Yomiuri Shimbun, a Japanese daily, Japan Self Defence Force’s destroyer JS Sazanami entered the Taiwan Strait from the East China Sea on September 25 morning. The Japanese warship JS Sazanami spent more than 10 hours while transiting through the waters of the Taiwan Strait in concert with naval ships from Australia and New Zealand, Yomiuri Shimbun said, quoting multiple sources.
Earlier on September 13, Germany sailed two naval ships through the Strait for the first time in the last 22 years. The European country said it acted in accordance with international law.
Invariably, most countries in the world consider the part of the Strait that lies outside China and Taiwan’s territorial waters to be the high seas, in line with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). They send warships in the contested Strait to support freedom of navigation.
The US has itself sent several warships and flew aircraft through the Taiwan Strait. This year on September 17, a US Navy aircraft P-8A Poseidon flew through the Strait, showing America’s commitment to free and open international airspace.
On August 22, USA’s 7th Fleet in a statement said that the destroyer USS Ralph Johnson (DDG-114) sailed through the waters of the Taiwan Strait. Earlier this year, destroyer USS John Finn (DDG-113) conducted two transits through the Taiwan Strait. The Canadian Navy has sent its warship, HMCS Montreal (FFH-336), a Halifax-class frigate to the Taiwan Strait.
Through these moves, the US and its allies have tried to send a categorical message to China that its military-led adventurism against Taiwan will be met with strong resistance.
In particular, the US and Japan have vital strategic interests at stake in the Taiwan Strait. Since the island is located at a critical point—stretching from the Japanese archipelago to the Philippines and the South China Sea, its security is important for the sake of the US and Japan’s defence and economic interests in the Indo-Pacific, analysts said.
Moreover, for the US, it would be far more “difficult to maintain a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific or prevent a Chinese bid for regional dominance,” should Taiwan is annexed by Beijing, David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in his article for the US-based think tank’s portal.
He added, “If the US chooses to stand aside from Chinese aggression against Taiwan and China successfully annexes the island, it would be only seventy miles from Japanese territory and 120 miles from the Philippines. The allies would come to question whether the US would or even could come to their defence.”
To ward off the emergence of such situations, the US is not only investing in Taiwan’s defence by supplying military hardware and technology to the self-ruling island, it is also strengthening its preparedness to take on China by sealing security-related pacts with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
In the meanwhile, China, which views Taiwan as its own territory, has increased its aggression against the island. It has signalled reunifying the democratically governed island by 2027. To meet this goal, it has undertaken multiple military drills in the Western Pacific in the recent past.
In 2023, the PLA carried out military drills thrice around Taiwan. As per an unpublished estimate of Taiwan, which was reported by Reuters, China spent about $15 billion, or 7% of its defence budget, on exercises in the Western Pacific last year.
This year, China conducted full scale exercise in May in response to the inauguration speech of Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s new President, clearly showing that Beijing has prioritised its investment in military activities in and around the self-ruling island. It is also implicit in its defence budget of 2024, which is $1.67 trillion yuan (about $231.36 billion)—a 7.2% increase from 2023.
Despite all this, will Beijing be able to translate its ambition of forcefully reunifying Taiwan with mainland China? Analysts say even with massive possession of modern warships, combat aircraft and missiles, China is nowhere near the level of military superiority that could guarantee a successful attack on Taiwan, given the US and allies’ capabilities to fight off PLA’s military aggression. The Australian think tank Lowy Institute said if a cross-Strait war erupts, it would lead to disruption in regional economic activity, threatening the livelihoods of millions of Chinese. “The resulting social turmoil could endanger Xi’s rule,” Lowy Institute said.
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