China will see 25,000 COVID-19 deaths a day by mid-January, according to a study published by UK-based research firm Airfinity. The study says the number of COVID-19 cases in China will rise to 3.7 million cases a day when the infection peaks on January 13. China’s COVID-19 death toll will rise to 587,000 by the end of January and to 1.7 million by April-end, according to the company’s predictive health analytics data.
Watering down zero-COVID
The current surge in coronavirus cases follows Beijing’s decision to relax its strict zero-COVID policy. China had adopted a stringent policy to guard against infection that gradually grew unpopular with citizens. Widespread protests in Beijing and other parts of China forced the Communist Party to ease curbs.
Now, China’s health infrastructure is under immense strain as hospitals and funeral homes get overcrowded. Pictures of people getting intravenous drips by the roadside and long lines of hearses outside crematoria have attracted global attention.
Beijing won’t give numbers
The Airfinity study comes at a time when China is seeing a surge in COVID-19 cases and the National Health Commission, Beijing’s chief medical body, has decided to not release infection and death numbers on a daily basis.
For December 30, China only reported one COVID-19 fatality, the same as the day before. The figures do not correspond to global standard ratio of infections and deaths.
According to Airfinity, China is currently seeing around 9,000 COVID-19 cases a day.
Airfinity’s model
Airfinity’s study draws on data from China’s provinces prior to Beijing modifying disease reporting norms. The model also traces growth in caseload on the basis of how other nations seeing a spike are reporting cases, including Japan.
Airfinity, in its report, stated that the number of cases in Beijing have most likely already peaked, with the peak in hospitalisations and fatalities coming in the next one to two weeks.
The firm has also forecast that a second peak, which is expected to take place on March 3, 2023, will see daily cases likely exceed 4.2 million per day. In this second wave, it is anticipated that rural areas may be more severely affected.