Tech mogul Elon Musk’s potential weight in the second Donald Trump administration is likely to accelerate the US space programme and pose a “huge test” to China’s extraterrestrial ambitions, Chinese observers said.
The SpaceX founder and CEO has been flagged to lead a new “department of government efficiency” when Trump takes office in January, but is also expected to influence Washington’s space policies.
Space has increasingly emerged as a battleground in the intensifying geopolitical competition between the world’s two largest economies, which are also the top two defence spenders on the planet.
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The rivalry appears to be extending beyond scientific discovery and commercial innovations to leadership in the interstellar arena, raising concerns over potential strategic posturing in the orbital domain.
Analysts said Beijing needed to maintain its strategic focus and avoid getting into a space, hi-tech or arms race with the US.
Instead, China should continue with its aerospace projects as planned, while learning from the strengths of SpaceX and seeking cooperation with the US where the two powers could work together in the field, they said.
During his first presidency, Trump launched Space Force – a stand-alone branch of the armed forces – and signed a directive instructing Nasa to return the US to the moon and reach Mars.
The federally funded space agency announced earlier this year that it was delaying the Artemis moon missions – its first crewed lunar programme in decades – by one year until September 2025 and September 2026.
US president-elect Donald Trump pictured in 2017 during his first term in the White House after signing a bill increasing funding for Nasa. Photo: AFP alt=US president-elect Donald Trump pictured in 2017 during his first term in the White House after signing a bill increasing funding for Nasa. Photo: AFP>
Song Zhongping, a Chinese military commentator and former People’s Liberation Army instructor, said Musk could help Trump improve Nasa’s management mechanisms and even use SpaceX to “optimise” other aerospace firms such as Boeing.
Such a move would inject more “vitality” and “catalysts” into America’s space sector, fuelling US aerospace development with not only civilian applications but also military aspects, he said.
“Musk joining Trump’s team can be considered a significant boost to the future of American aerospace development. We truly need to be aware of and understand this,” Song said. “A strong competitor like Musk is a huge test for our development.”
Nasa chief Bill Nelson said in 2023 that the US was “in a space race” with China. He also accused the Chinese space agency of lacking transparency and endangering other countries.
Despite starting its space programme decades after the US and other countries, China has been steadily notching up milestones, notably with its Chang’e lunar exploration project and the Tiangong space station.
In June, China became the first country to retrieve samples from the far side of the moon and return them safely to Earth.
Tiangong, which is expected to be operational for at least 10 years, could be the only space station in orbit once the ISS reaches the end of its lifespan around 2030. China was excluded from the International Space Station in 2011, largely due to US concerns.
China has also shown a growing focus on space security in recent years, with the PLA’s aerospace forces now reporting directly to the Central Military Commission after a new command structure was unveiled in April.
In an interview with Politico published last month, US Space Force chief General B. Chance Saltzman warned that China’s “mind-boggling” pace of putting counterspace capabilities into play was more concerning than possible Russian nuclear weapons in space.
The Chinese foreign ministry reiterated in October that China remained committed to the peaceful use of outer space and “has no intention to engage in a race with other countries in space and does not seek to gain an edge in space”.
Zhu Junwei, director of the Centre for American Studies at the Beijing-based think tank Grandview Institution, noted that the US still holds a lead in space technologies and warned that a tech war or arms race with the US in space would be a drain on resources.
“In space, China could maintain our strategic focus, do our own work well and advance steadily in accordance with established plans while closely following the dynamics of global space developments,” she said.
Zhu added that China could follow a path of identifying key areas and developing trump card-like technologies and staying within its capabilities without spreading itself too thin.
A benign competition in space can be meaningful if exploration by China, US and other countries is aimed at civilian and scientific purposes, Zhu said, adding that “we should continue to oppose the militarisation of space”.
According to Zhu, China should continue to pursue cooperation with the US in space “as long as there are opportunities or suitable projects”.
China last month unveiled an ambitious road map to surpass the US and become the world leader in space science by 2050. Two weeks ago, its third female astronaut was among the three-person crew that left Earth for a six-month mission on China’s own space station.
Meanwhile, SpaceX successfully steered the first-stage booster of its Starship megarocket – which Musk hopes will one day carry humans to Mars – back to the launch pad after a test flight in October.
Musk’s Mars ambitions are expected to receive renewed support and funding from the new administration. During his election victory speech, Trump recalled watching the SpaceX test. “I called Elon. I said, ‘who else can do that? Can Russia do it?’ ‘No.’ ‘Can China do it?’ No.”
The state-owned space giant China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation has explicitly set SpaceX as its benchmark to overcome “clear gaps and shortcomings in development mindset, research and production models, key technologies as well as quality, efficiency and benefits”.
China has also begun to launch the satellites for its G60 constellation, known as Qianfan, to rival SpaceX’s Starlink.
Song said Musk’s greatest strength was in his ability to break with tradition and emphasise commercial operations to achieve difficult tasks with low-cost, reusable solutions.
The US entrepreneurial icon’s management style, technical ideas and forward-thinking approach were also a big inspiration for China, according to Song.
China could learn from Musk to break out of traditional approaches in aerospace development, set longer-term goals, consolidate basic industrial capabilities in the sector and foster innovation in thinking, he said.
Song added that China could also draw on Musk’s management experience to improve efficiency.
“[We] should cut down on some red tape, reduce unnecessary intermediate links and administrative approval procedures … and trim more administrative hurdles so as to enable China’s aerospace sector to develop rapidly,” he said.
The Chang’e-6 lunar probe containing samples from the far side of the moon is opened during a ceremony in June at the China Academy of Space Technology in Beijing. Photo: Xinhua alt=The Chang’e-6 lunar probe containing samples from the far side of the moon is opened during a ceremony in June at the China Academy of Space Technology in Beijing. Photo: Xinhua>
Philip Cunningham, an independent scholar and US-China relations commentator, suggested that “a modicum of improvement” in the relationship could emerge, perhaps with the aid of some friendly and cooperative gestures.
Cunningham cited Nasa’s request for access to the lunar samples retrieved by China as an example of potential areas of cooperation. “There does seem to be a subtle and not unreasonable hope that once the grandstanding is over, some quiet progress can be made,” he said.
According to Cunningham, depoliticising progress in space could foster scientific exchange, which would benefit both countries.
“[Musk] has too many conflicts of interest to be a mover on this front,” Cunningham said, adding that experts and officials from both sides could “move the needle forward through quiet, professional cooperation”.
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.