Amid escalating concerns over China’s assertive behavior at sea, an upgraded partnership between the United States and Vietnam has emerged as a noteworthy development. However, while this development is viewed as a positive step, it is also underscored by the recognition that China’s considerable influence remains a formidable challenge. The Diplomat has reported that as long as China maintains its robust and unified political will to exert dominance over its neighboring regions, apprehensions will persist regarding the effectiveness of such initiatives.
Recently, US President Joe Biden announced his intention to visit Vietnam with the aim of elevating the bilateral relations between the two nations. This step holds significance, considering that previous attempts by Washington to push for an upgrade had encountered resistance from Vietnam due to concerns about potential retaliatory actions from China.
The suggestion of upgrading the existing “Comprehensive Partnership” between the US and Vietnam directly to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” bypassing the intermediary “Strategic Partnership,” has been put forward by experts and even acknowledged by President Biden. This move would bring the US-Vietnam relationship to a level akin to Vietnam’s relationship with China.
Vietnam’s stance on this matter appears to have evolved in the context of China’s escalated activities in Vietnamese waters, including incursions and disruptions to oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea this year. While Vietnam may opt for closer alignment with an external power, signaling its realization that yielding to Chinese pressure does not alleviate the issue of “Chinese Bullying,” the Diplomat reports.
Amid the discourse surrounding China’s behavior and the potential US-Vietnam partnership upgrade, the concept of Vietnam “Escaping China’s Orbit” has regained prominence. This phrase, known as “throat Trung” in Vietnamese, draws inspiration from Japanese scholar Fukuzawa Yukichi’s 1885 work “Leaving Asia,” which advocated Japan’s alignment with the West. This terminology has gained currency in Vietnamese discussions, both within the media and among independent writers, as it pertains to Vietnam’s strategies in light of China’s growing economic and military influence.
The notion that Vietnam must break free from China’s sphere of influence to safeguard its sovereignty and reduce economic dependence on China enjoys wide public consensus. The underlying question, however, pertains to the strategy for achieving this goal. Vietnam’s alignment with the United States or the Western world is perceived as a pivotal avenue, given that the US possesses the necessary strength to enable Vietnam to balance against China.
Yet, the Diplomat notes that discussions surrounding Vietnam’s potential liberation from China’s influence, informed by the Japanese experience, lack a sound foundation. The assumption that peripheral Asian nations can emulate Japan’s, South Korea’s, or Taiwan’s successes based on a mere analogy, ignoring broader complexities, is deemed unsubstantiated by experts.
The Diplomat underscores the need for the United States to exhibit respect for Vietnam’s long-standing apprehensions concerning Chinese retaliation. It’s advised not to push for the partnership upgrade aggressively or prematurely. The Diplomat emphasizes that Vietnam’s freedom of action will continue to be significantly shaped by China. While staying within China’s orbit incurs its own costs, for Vietnam, it may still be deemed preferable to attempting a potentially detrimental escape.